Never give up?

Comeback clock

Trailing at half-time, two goals down after 70 minutes: how often do teams still win? Every minute of more than 30,000 internationals with complete goal records.

Matches with every goal recorded
35,689
Still win after trailing 0:1 at half-time
7.6 %
Still win when two goals down after 70 minutes
0.3 %
Wins after being two goals down
197

Chance to win

Share of teams that won after 90 minutes, by score difference at a given minute.

Show draws and defeats
Score15′30′HT60′70′75′80′85′89′
3 goals ahead97 %3.5 % · 0 %n = 8699 %0.8 % · 0.5 %n = 63599 %0.7 % · 0.2 %n = 1,52799 %0.4 % · < 0.1 %n = 2,345100 %0.2 % · 0 %n = 2,809100 %< 0.1 % · 0 %n = 2,996100 %< 0.1 % · 0 %n = 3,190100 %< 0.1 % · 0 %n = 3,393100 %0 % · 0 %n = 3,552
2 goals ahead94 %3.7 % · 1.8 %n = 99293 %4.5 % · 2.1 %n = 3,01094 %4.1 % · 1.4 %n = 4,75796 %3.7 % · 0.6 %n = 6,02897 %2.5 % · 0.3 %n = 6,54298 %1.8 % · 0.2 %n = 6,79799 %1.0 % · 0 %n = 6,972100 %0.4 % · < 0.1 %n = 7,126100 %0.1 % · 0 %n = 7,136
1 goal ahead72 %16 % · 12 %n = 9,10672 %18 % · 10 %n = 13,07274 %19 % · 7.6 %n = 14,13477 %18 % · 5.1 %n = 14,07981 %16 % · 3.1 %n = 13,75883 %15 % · 2.1 %n = 13,48886 %13 % · 1.3 %n = 13,18690 %9.6 % · 0.5 %n = 12,82694 %5.5 % · 0.2 %n = 12,637
Level36 %28 % · 36 %n = 50,98634 %33 % · 34 %n = 37,56030 %40 % · 30 %n = 29,03225 %50 % · 25 %n = 23,38820 %59 % · 20 %n = 20,75617 %65 % · 17 %n = 19,71414 %72 % · 14 %n = 18,8829.6 %81 % · 9.6 %n = 18,1184.8 %90 % · 4.8 %n = 17,474
1 goal behind12 %16 % · 72 %n = 9,10610 %18 % · 72 %n = 13,0727.6 %19 % · 74 %n = 14,1345.1 %18 % · 77 %n = 14,0793.1 %16 % · 81 %n = 13,7582.1 %15 % · 83 %n = 13,4881.3 %13 % · 86 %n = 13,1860.5 %9.6 % · 90 %n = 12,8260.2 %5.5 % · 94 %n = 12,637
2 goals behind1.8 %3.7 % · 94 %n = 9922.1 %4.5 % · 93 %n = 3,0101.4 %4.1 % · 94 %n = 4,7570.6 %3.7 % · 96 %n = 6,0280.3 %2.5 % · 97 %n = 6,5420.2 %1.8 % · 98 %n = 6,7970 %1.0 % · 99 %n = 6,972< 0.1 %0.4 % · 100 %n = 7,1260 %0.1 % · 100 %n = 7,136
3 goals behind0 %3.5 % · 97 %n = 860.5 %0.8 % · 99 %n = 6350.2 %0.7 % · 99 %n = 1,527< 0.1 %0.4 % · 99 %n = 2,3450 %0.2 % · 100 %n = 2,8090 %< 0.1 % · 100 %n = 2,9960 %< 0.1 % · 100 %n = 3,1900 %< 0.1 % · 100 %n = 3,3930 %0 % · 100 %n = 3,552

Each cell: win · draw · defeat. Each match counts twice, once for each team. – means the situation never happened.

The least likely comebacks

Wins after the lowest chance at any moment of the match, according to the table above.

#DateWinnerLoserScoreWorst momentChance
1BonaireBritish Virgin Islands4:31:3 in minute 85< 0.1 %
2SwitzerlandSlovenia3:20:2 in minute 79< 0.1 %
3IranThailand3:20:2 in minute 79< 0.1 %
4MartiniqueSaint Lucia5:41:4 in minute 63< 0.1 %
5ArgentinaEgypt3:20:2 in minute 78< 0.1 %
6IranBosnia & Herzegovina3:20:2 in minute 78< 0.1 %
7CuraçaoCosta Rica4:30:3 in minute 61< 0.1 %
8ItalyCyprus3:20:2 in minute 77< 0.1 %
9JapanGhana4:31:3 in minute 77< 0.1 %
10EcuadorAustralia4:30:3 in minute 55< 0.1 %
11PanamaHonduras3:20:2 in minute 760.1 %
12Saudi ArabiaCongo3:20:2 in minute 760.1 %
13VenezuelaHaiti3:20:2 in minute 760.1 %
14MauritiusTanzania3:20:2 in minute 760.1 %
15BelgiumNetherlands3:20:2 in minute 750.2 %
16ArubaAnguilla3:21:2 in minute 890.2 %
17HaitiTrinidad & Tobago3:21:2 in minute 890.2 %
18Burkina FasoEquatorial Guinea2:10:1 in minute 890.2 %
19OmanKyrgyzstan2:10:1 in minute 890.2 %
20JordanIraq3:21:2 in minute 890.2 %
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How it's counted

Only matches between A teams whose goals were all recorded with half and minute, and only the 90 minutes: extra time doesn’t count. First half stoppage time counts as minute 45, second half stoppage time as minute 90. A situation is a team at a given score difference in a given minute; the chance is the share of such situations that ended in a win.